TRIALCAST
Clinical Catalysts & Approval Forecasts
Drug-level catalysts, dated evidence and explicit analyst scenario drafts. Full pipeline reconciliation remains in progress.
LEGN UW
Legend Biotech
分析師根據目前證據做的主觀情境機率，還不是模型算出的答案。
4 program recordsPriority coverage · full pipeline census pending
Ciltacabtagene autoleucel · CARVYKTI
Newly diagnosed MM; transplant not intended
Verified company disclosurePatient follow-up reported in May pipeline.
First public pivotal efficacy and safety readout
Date undisclosed · monitor through Dec 2027Analyst monitoring horizon; not a readout forecast · horizon ends 2027-12-31
Analyst scenario · review pending
AI-assisted subjective draft · 2026-09-08.v1. Round working priors are assigned in 5-point steps; they are not probabilities reported by the cited companies. These are event outcomes by the stated horizon, not calibrated approval probabilities or sell-side consensus.
Prespecified primary endpoint met with no safety issue preventing filing.
Primary endpoint missed or a safety issue prevents the intended filing.
Neither success nor failure publicly established by the horizon; includes delay and inconclusive evidence.
Draft rationale. Existing MM activity supports efficacy; first-line transfer and undisclosed event timing warrant a large unresolved branch.
Resolve failure first if both criteria occur. Otherwise resolve success; all other outcomes remain unresolved. Thresholds require analyst approval before prospective scoring.
Success / failure valuation sensitivity
Value only Legend-attributable economics after J&J collaboration terms. GenScript is indirect exposure to the same event; do not add it as an independent trial.
Illustrative US$100m unit · not an asset valuation. NPV must already reflect territorial rights, royalties, tax and commercial cash flows. Values below exclude incremental development costs and financing changes.
| Outcome | Value retained* | Value | Δ vs weighted case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Success | 85% | 85.0 | +28.0 |
| Failure | 5% | 5.0 | −52.0 |
| Unresolved | 45% | 45.0 | −12.0 |
Probability-weighted case: US$57.0m.
*Retention percentages are explicit stress assumptions, not probabilities. Weighted value = Σ(event probability × scenario value). Δ equity = Δ indication value − incremental cost − financing effects. Share-price impact remains unestimated until dated diluted shares and the complete equity bridge are available. Do not sum overlapping indications or related-company exposures.
Evidence gaps / next research action
- Confirm whether any readout has occurred since the May pipeline before promoting this draft.
- Registry history and statistical analysis plan require independent reconciliation.
- Indication cash-flow NPV, economic rights, incremental costs and diluted share bridge not yet underwritten.
Registry ID: unreconciled · scientific event and market expectations remain separate.
Primary sources
- Legend Q1 2026 — pipeline table ↗Published 2026-05-12 · checked 2026-09-08